Returns in Commodities Futures Markets and Financial Speculation: A Multivariate GARCH Approach

Speculation on commodities futures markets and destabilization of global food prices: exploring the connections.

In December 2010, the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization's Food Price Index surpassed its previous peak of June 2008, and prices remained at this level through September 2011. This pattern is creating justified fears of a renewal or intensification of the global food crisis. This paper reviews arguments and evidence to inform debates on how to regulate commodity futures markets in...

Transmission of Returns and Volatility in Art Markets: A Multivariate GARCH Analysis

A multivariate GARCH analysis of equity returns and volatility in Asian equity markets

This paper examines the transmission of equity returns and volatility among Asian equity markets and investigates the differences that exist in this regard between the developed and emerging markets. Three developed markets (Hong Kong, Japan and Singapore) and six emerging markets (Indonesia, Korea, Malaysia, the Philippines, Taiwan and Thailand) are included in the analysis. A multivariate gen...

Speculation and survival in financial markets∗

The paper analyzes a finite time economy with a single risky asset which pays a one-shot payoff (dividend). The payoff is random and its distribution is not known à priori. Agents observe public signals (random draws from the same distribution) and update their beliefs about the payoff. They trade in order to reshuffle their portfolios according to new beliefs. Agents may use various updating r...

A test of the efficiency of futures markets in commodities